Note. A grand unified theory of Chinese foreign policy when the zhongnanhai doesn’t really care [000H]
A friend recently asked what Chinese leaders are thinking about the Iran war, and noted their ‘message discipline’. My initial response was as follows: first, they are probably just confused; second, you don’t need much message discipline when the system is clamming up, because people don’t generally go out of their way to start posting; and, third, we should expect them to be confused due to a deep dysfunction in the transmission of information in the MFA and allied institutions (cf Taiwan, where all the information required is transmitted, but it’s simply not understood, because that would require understanding that sometimes Asian liberals aren’t merely CIA plants but might organically like not sliding towards North Korea).
My evidence for this general claim involves a close examination of Chinese policy in Burma and Pakistan. Eventually this will be written up here. For now, here’s an article from The Diplomat. You can fill in the blanks whilst I procrastinate.
Reference. Counterterrorism Expert Ajmal Sohail on Pakistan’s ISI Targeting the Chinese in Afghanistan [ramachandran2026]